Question

Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?

Resolved:Yes

103 comments103

Total Forecasters190

Community Prediction

51%

(45% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 51%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-11.3

Community Peer Score

18.4

Authors:

Alexander230

Opened:

Dec 22, 2020

Closes:

Jun 30, 2021

Resolves:

Jul 7, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 23, 2020

Health & Pandemics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

Authors:

Alexander230

Opened:

Dec 22, 2020

Closes:

Jun 30, 2021

Resolves:

Jul 7, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 23, 2020

Health & Pandemics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

0.1%