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2021 GA Special Runoff Margin of Victory

Question

In the 2020 election, Raphael Warnock (D) went into a runoff election with Kelly Loeffler (R) after winning 32.9% of the vote to Loeffler's 25.9% and Doug Collin's 20.0%. Because Warnock did not clear the 50% threshold needed to win, the top two candidates - Warnock and Loeffler - went into a runoff election that will be decided on 5 January 2021.

What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?

This number resolves as the percentage point margin of victory of Kelly Loeffler over Raphael Warnock, per official state results after certification of the vote. This number will be negative if Warnock wins.

For example, if Kelly gets 51.3% of the vote and Warnock gets 47%, this would resolve as +4.3. If Warnock gets 50.1% of the vote and Kelly gets 49.3%, this would resolve as -0.8.

If the election does not proceed with these two candidates as scheduled, the question will resolve ambiguous.

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