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Date of Next Scottish Indepedence Referendum


Related Question on Metaculus:

In 2014, a referendum for the independence of Scotland was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK.

In 2016, the UK held a referendum for leaving the European Union, with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a second independence referendum.

However, Scottish independence is a reserved matter under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been ruled out by Boris Johnson.

When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?

This question will resolve as the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, the question will resolve as the final day of voting.

If there is no such referendum by January 1, 2035, this question will resolve as >January 1, 2025.

ETA (2020-11-26): This question requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.

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