Question
When will 1bn people have been vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?
Resolved:AmbiguousTotal Forecasters62
Community Prediction
14 Oct 2021
(01 Sep 2021 - 18 Dec 2021)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 01 Sep 2021 | — |
| median | 14 Oct 2021 | — |
| upper 75% | 18 Dec 2021 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >30 Dec 2023 | 6.5% | — |
What was the final result?Ambiguous
Authors:
Opened:Nov 24, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 25, 2020
Authors:
Opened:Nov 24, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 25, 2020