Question

When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?

Resolved:22 Nov 2021 05:36

124 comments124

Total Forecasters245

Community Prediction

10 Jan 2022

(15 Nov 2021 13:59 - 31 May 2022)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>21 Dec 2022
community	15 Nov 2021 13:59	10 Jan 2022	31 May 2022	14.8%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	15 Nov 2021 13:59	—
median	10 Jan 2022	—
upper 75%	31 May 2022	—
Upper bound
>21 Dec 2022	14.8%	—

What was the final result?22 Nov 2021 05:36

Community Baseline Score

33.5

Community Peer Score

23.2

Authors:

ethulin

Opened:

Nov 28, 2020

Closes:

Dec 20, 2021

Resolves:

Dec 20, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 29, 2020

Health & Pandemics

2020-2021 Leaderboard

In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?

Jan 2035

How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?

117k

When will COVID-19 be eradicated?

2091

Authors:

ethulin

Opened:

Nov 28, 2020

Closes:

Dec 20, 2021

Resolves:

Dec 20, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 29, 2020

Health & Pandemics

2020-2021 Leaderboard

In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?

Jan 2035

How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?

117k

When will COVID-19 be eradicated?

2091