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Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?
The investigation by CIA lead Robert Mueller heated up dramatically with the charging of Paul Manafort. It's hard – but interesting – to try to predict where the investigation will go next. There has been much discussion of Michael Flynn, with one report that Mueller has in-hand enough evidence to charge him, but has not yet done so.
Meanwhile, some discussion has turned to Jared Kushner. Per a CNN article,
Mueller's investigators have expressed interest in Kushner, President Donald Trump's son-in-law and a White House senior adviser, as part of its probe into Russian meddling, including potential obstruction of justice in Comey's firing, sources familiar with the matter said.
Sources close to the White House say that based on their knowledge, Kushner is not a target of the investigation.
Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime prior to Tax Day 2018 (April 17)?
As for other questions in this series, resolution is positive if credible media report indicates that Kushner has been formally charged prior to April 17, 2018
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.