Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Your essay is now in Draft mode

Once you submit your essay, it will be available to judges for review and you can no longer edit it. Please make sure to review eligibility criteria before submitting. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review by judges.

SARS-CoV-2 vaccine widely available in the US

Question

While vaccine hesitancy remains high at 42% in the US, public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible.

Various officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available.

Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci estimated "as early as April":

When asked when normal people with no prioritization factors would have access to a vaccine, Fauci responded "We are talking by April, by the end of April, I think".

HHS Secretary Alex Azar estimated by "March or early April":

It’s estimated the government will have enough coronavirus vaccine... "for all Americans by March or early April to have general vaccination programs.”

Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb estimated "heading into fall 2021"

"And I think by the second quarter of 2021, maybe into the third quarter, we'll have a vaccine that hopefully will be licensed for general use if everything goes well and the data continues to support the safety and effectiveness of that vaccine. And we'll be able to vaccinate the public or a good portion of the public heading into the fall of 2021."

When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?

This question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide.

Similar language to widely available, such as "generally available" or "available for all who want it", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question.

To be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand limiting device such as a lottery.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site