Question
When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?
Resolved:19 Apr 2021 08:00Total Forecasters135
Community Prediction
22 Apr 2021 16:55
(17 Apr 2021 10:25 - 01 May 2021)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 17 Apr 2021 10:25 | — |
| median | 22 Apr 2021 16:55 | — |
| upper 75% | 01 May 2021 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >24 Dec 2021 | 0.1% | — |
What was the final result?19 Apr 2021 08:00
Community Baseline Score
24.7
Community Peer Score
8.9
Authors:
Opened:Dec 5, 2020
Closes:Dec 31, 2021
Resolves:Dec 31, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 5, 2020
In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?
Jan 2035
When will a universal flu vaccine be available?
31 May 2030
When will an intranasal SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be approved by the US?
04 Aug 2026
Authors:
Opened:Dec 5, 2020
Closes:Dec 31, 2021
Resolves:Dec 31, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 5, 2020
In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?
Jan 2035
When will a universal flu vaccine be available?
31 May 2030
When will an intranasal SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be approved by the US?
04 Aug 2026