Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Your essay is now in Draft mode

Once you submit your essay, it will be available to judges for review and you can no longer edit it. Please make sure to review eligibility criteria before submitting. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review by judges.

Federal loan forgiveness

Question

From Forbes,

There are 45 million borrowers who collectively owe nearly $1.6 trillion in student loan debt in the U.S. Student loan debt is now the second highest consumer debt category - behind only mortgage debt - and higher than both credit cards and auto loans.

From CNBC,

Student loan forgiveness is looking more like a possibility under President-elect Joe Biden, but an unintended consequence may emerge unless Washington intervenes: a tax on loan forgiveness.

Biden has proposed creating a new program that would offer borrowers $10,000 of student debt relief for every year of national or community service, up to five years.

Sens. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., have also said that the next president could wipe as much as $50,000 from borrowers’ balances via an executive order.

The US federal government can forgive people's student loans through the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program. The most recent data shows that the federal government forgave $347,935,412 for the month of September 2020.

How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?

This question resolves as the total dollar amount that the US Federal Government forgives in student loans during 2021, in billions of dollars, as determined by data from the US Government, or credible media reports. Right now, you can find how much the federal government forgives by retrieving data here, downloading the spreadsheets, and summing the two entries titled "Total balance discharged for borrowers with an eligible PSLF application" and "Total balance discharged for borrowers with an eligible TEPSLF application*".

Categories:
Economy – US

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site