Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Trump at Biden's inauguration?
The inauguration of the president of the United States is a ceremony to mark the commencement of a new four-year term of the president of the United States. As the new President-elect, Joe Biden is scheduled to be inaugurated on 20 Jan 2021.
After much speculation that she wouldn't, Hillary Clinton did attend Trump's inauguration, as is the tradition. Only three incumbent presidents have refused to attend the inauguration of the President-elect - John Adams, John Quincy Adams, and Andrew Johnson.
Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?
This question resolves "yes" if Trump attends a public event where Biden is sworn in as president, "no" if Trump does not attend.
This question resolves ambiguous if such an event does not occur by the end of 1 February 2021.
For positive resolution, Trump must be (a) within 800 meters of Joe Biden (b) for at least 80% of the entire inauguration ceremony and (c) is not hosting an alternative event or giving a speech for any amount of time that is contemporaneous with the inauguration ceremony.
The time period of "inauguration ceremony" refers to Biden's swearing in, plus the thirty minutes prior and thirty minutes after, or just the thirty minutes prior if there are not at least thirty minutes after, or just the thirty minutes after if there are not at least thirty minutes prior.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.