36
160 forecasters
Will China land the next person on the Moon?
45%chance
Top Key Factors
US Starship program too ambitious for timeline
Increases Likelihood
Due to need for "absolute success," China delays critical Moon launch to 2027arstechnica.com•Aug 23, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
China making strides in lunar landing efforts
Increases Likelihood
US lunar program setbacks increase China's chances
Increases Likelihood
When will China first successfully launch a Long March 10 rocket (need for the moon mission)?
Increases Likelihood
US Starship program too ambitious for timeline
Increases Likelihood
Due to need for "absolute success," China delays critical Moon launch to 2027arstechnica.com•Aug 23, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
China making strides in lunar landing efforts
Increases Likelihood
US lunar program setbacks increase China's chances
Increases Likelihood
When will China first successfully launch a Long March 10 rocket (need for the moon mission)?
Increases Likelihood