Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Electoral College Results Challenged?

The electoral college will meet on 14 December 2020 and vote. They are widely expected to deliver a result showing Biden has won the election.

However, individual states may have their Electoral College Certificate of Vote challenged when Congress meets in Joint Session to count the electoral votes cast for President and Vice President on 6 Jan 2021. This will be the newly elected Senate and House of Representatives, following the 2020 election.

A "formal objection" must be made in writing and be signed by at least one Senator and one member of the House of Representatives, per the provisions of 3 U.S.C. §15.

In 1969, a challenge was made to attempt to overturn a vote of a faithless elector. In 2005, Representative Stephanie Tubbs Jones of Ohio and Senator Barbara Boxer of California objected to Ohio's electoral votes, alleging "widespread irregularities". Neither of these challenges succeeded.

An objection was also attempted in 2016 by a member of the House, but no Senator signed on.

Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?

This question resolves positively if at least one formal objection to the 2020 electoral college vote is made in writing and signed by at least one Senator and one member of the House of Representatives, per credible media reporting. (Note that the objection does not need to succeed to count for positive resolution.)

This question resolves negatively if no such objection is made.

This question resolves ambiguously if the certification is not held by 6 Jan 2021. If somehow an objection is made after 6 Jan 2021 but the certification has taken place, the objection will not count for the purposes of this question and the objection will not affect resolution.

If an objection is made, this question will close retroactively to 24 hours before the date of the objection.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.