Question

Will there be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?

41 comments41

Total Forecasters540

Community Prediction

97%

(90% - 99%)

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50%

community: 97%

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Authors:

jzima

Opened:

Nov 21, 2017

Closes:

Jan 2, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jun 14, 2100

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 21, 2017

Environment & Climate

Study warns 1.5-degree warming limit can’t prevent dangers of melting glaciers

PBS NewsHour•Jul 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How much global warming by 2100?

3.13

When will be the first year that the 2˚C climate threshold is crossed?

Dec 2043

How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally in 2100 in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?

11.6

Authors:

jzima

Opened:

Nov 21, 2017

Closes:

Jan 2, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jun 14, 2100

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 21, 2017

Environment & Climate

Study warns 1.5-degree warming limit can’t prevent dangers of melting glaciers

PBS NewsHour•Jul 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How much global warming by 2100?

3.13

When will be the first year that the 2˚C climate threshold is crossed?

Dec 2043

How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally in 2100 in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?

11.6