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Question

Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?

Resolved:No
43
122 comments122
Total Forecasters308
Community Prediction
56%
(50% - 64%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 56%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score
2.6
Authors:
Matthew_Barnett
Opened:Dec 10, 2020
Closes:Nov 5, 2024
Resolves:Nov 20, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 11, 2020
Elections
2016-2025 Leaderboard
New York Post logo
James Carville tells ex-CNN host he’s worried Trump will tamper with 2026 midterm elections
New York Post•Jul 3, 2025
Independent logo
Trump’s DOJ looks at criminal charges for election officials it says don’t do enough to safeguard voting systems
Independent•Jul 3, 2025
New York Post logo
Trump believes 2020 election loss was 'providential' so his second term fell on America's 250th birthday
New York Post•Jul 2, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the House of Representatives seat a legislator who was not certified as the winner of their election before July 1, 2027?

5%

Will a court change the winner of a 2026 election for U.S. House, Senate, or a top statewide office?

9%

Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?

4.2%
Authors:
Matthew_Barnett
Opened:Dec 10, 2020
Closes:Nov 5, 2024
Resolves:Nov 20, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 11, 2020
Elections
2016-2025 Leaderboard
New York Post logo
James Carville tells ex-CNN host he’s worried Trump will tamper with 2026 midterm elections
New York Post•Jul 3, 2025
Independent logo
Trump’s DOJ looks at criminal charges for election officials it says don’t do enough to safeguard voting systems
Independent•Jul 3, 2025
New York Post logo
Trump believes 2020 election loss was 'providential' so his second term fell on America's 250th birthday
New York Post•Jul 2, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the House of Representatives seat a legislator who was not certified as the winner of their election before July 1, 2027?

5%

Will a court change the winner of a 2026 election for U.S. House, Senate, or a top statewide office?

9%

Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?

4.2%
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