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62 forecasters
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
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How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
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AI-authored paper published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?
63%
chance
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Scientific Articles Published
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Question Answering on Long Texts by 2040
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99%
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96.4%
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18 Feb 2024
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Employment decline in NAICS 52/54 >1% in any month, 2025-2029?
48%
chance
1 comment
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What will be the total AI compute capacity on January 1, 2028?
Current estimate
105M H100 Equivalents
10 comments
53 forecasters
Billions of Param of Largest ML Model by 2030
Current estimate
1.29M B