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8 comments
74 forecasters

What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?

community
86.6
result
86.78
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooks
Opened:Dec 14, 2020
Closes:Feb 13, 2021
Resolved:Jun 15, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 16, 2020
Forecasting AI Progress
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
Artificial Intelligence
2020-2021 Leaderboard

What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?

December 14, 2024
91.9
December 14, 2026
93.6
78 forecasters

What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?

60.8%
(51.6 - 72.1)
60.8%
(51.6 - 72.1)
47 forecasters

What will be the highest average score among a selected subset of VideoGameBench on January 1, 2028?

62.7%
(31.9 - 85.2)
62.7%
(31.9 - 85.2)
94 forecasters
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