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79
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9 comments
79 forecasters
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
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How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?
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Latest estimate
7121
7121
(4841 - 10.1k)
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0 comments
7 forecasters
Scientific Articles Published
10 comments
41 forecasters
Number of New Leading AI Labs
0 or 1
49.8%
2 or 3
32.9%
4 or 5
11.9%
6 or 7
3.2%
2 others
15 comments
41 forecasters
Leading Lab No Safety
2026
result:
Yes
2030
28%
2036
20%
2 comments
118 forecasters
AI-authored paper published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?
63%
chance
4 comments
24 forecasters
Fields Medalists Trying AI Safety
2036
50%
2030
26%
2026
result:
No
1 comment
11 forecasters
Share of AI Publications from China
Current estimate
48.2%
1 comment
8 forecasters
What will be the total AI compute capacity on January 1, 2028?
Current estimate
105M H100 Equivalents
4 comments
63 forecasters
Frontier model released in 2029 without third-party evals?
75%
chance