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33 comments
124 forecasters

How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?

community
3
result
3
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooks
Opened:Dec 12, 2020
Closes:Jun 26, 2021
Resolved:Jun 28, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 14, 2020
Economist 2021
Health & Pandemics
2020-2021 Leaderboard
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Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?

40% chance
42

In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?

Mar 2032
(01 Aug 2029 - Apr 2036)
Mar 2032
(01 Aug 2029 - Apr 2036)
3 forecasters

Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?

80% chance
24
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