Question
How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?
Resolved:3Total Forecasters124
Community Prediction
3
(2.96 - 3.06)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 2.956 | — |
| median | 3.005 | — |
| upper 75% | 3.058 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >6 | 0.4% | — |
What was the final result?3
Community Peer Score
104.6
Authors:
Opened:Dec 12, 2020
Closes:Jun 26, 2021
Resolves:Jun 28, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 14, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?
38%
In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?
Jan 2035
Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?
80%
Authors:
Opened:Dec 12, 2020
Closes:Jun 26, 2021
Resolves:Jun 28, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 14, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?
38%
In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?
Jan 2035
Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?
80%