Question

Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?

Resolved:No

34 comments34

Total Forecasters156

Community Prediction

(5% - 12%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 7%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

18.3

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Dec 12, 2020

Closes:

Oct 31, 2021

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 12, 2020

Economist 2021

Economy & Business

2020-2021 Leaderboard

The most bullish S&P 500 forecast out there on Wall Street: 7,000 by year-end

CNBC•Jul 11, 2025

Why one Wall Street bear says he still sees a 12% correction for stocks in the 2nd half of 2025

Business Insider•Jul 9, 2025

Stifel sees a 12% drop for the S&P 500 in the second half of 2025

CNBC•Jul 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Dec 12, 2020

Closes:

Oct 31, 2021

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 12, 2020

Economist 2021

Economy & Business

2020-2021 Leaderboard

The most bullish S&P 500 forecast out there on Wall Street: 7,000 by year-end

CNBC•Jul 11, 2025

Why one Wall Street bear says he still sees a 12% correction for stocks in the 2nd half of 2025

Business Insider•Jul 9, 2025

Stifel sees a 12% drop for the S&P 500 in the second half of 2025

CNBC•Jul 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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