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20 comments
72 forecasters

How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?

community
492k
result
Ambiguous
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooks
Opened:Dec 12, 2020
Closes:Oct 31, 2021
Resolved:Jan 29, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 14, 2020
Economist 2021
Economy & Business
Technology
2020-2021 Leaderboard
Newsweek logo
In 10 Years, Electric Cars Will Only Be Half of the Global Market
Newsweek•Sep 17, 2025
USA Today logo
Is Tesla's stock at risk without the EV tax credit?
USA Today•Sep 16, 2025
Business Insider logo
Stellantis and Tesla Just Showed That Big EV Trucks Are a Tough Sell
Business Insider•Sep 14, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?

01 Mar 2026
(26 Oct 2025 - 26 Feb 2027)
01 Mar 2026
(26 Oct 2025 - 26 Feb 2027)
57 forecasters

What percentage of new vehicle production will be electric in the US in 2027?

25.6%
(16.3 - 38)
25.6%
(16.3 - 38)
71 forecasters

What percentage of US car sales will be all-electric in 2050?

81.6%
(59.8 - 93.1)
81.6%
(59.8 - 93.1)
79 forecasters
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