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Location of ET Life, If Discovered By 2050


This question asks whether conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life will be found within our Solar System. As specified in that question, the extraterrestrial life must not have been put in place as a result of human activity. Conditional to a positive resolution, we ask where the organisms (under natural conditions, no probes moving them, etc.) live or lived. We consider the most commonly discussed options, and a few other possibilities.

  1. Venus.
  2. Mars.
  3. Europa.
  4. Ganymede.
  5. Another moon of Jupiter.
  6. Enceladus.
  7. Titan.
  8. Another moon of Saturn.
  9. A dwarf planet.
  10. An asteroid.
  11. Another place in the Solar System.

Resolution is ambiguous if this question does not resolve positive by 2050. If this question resolves positive, the location of the natural environment will be assessed by scientific consensus (as judged by Metaculus administrators). If, by 2060, there is no such consensus, it resolves ambiguous. If several places would qualify, this question resolves as the first example discovered.

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