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75 forecasters
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
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What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?
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186 productivity
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Employment decline in NAICS 52/54 >1% in any month, 2025-2029?
48%
chance
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382
13 comments
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S&P 500 closes above 7,500 at end-2026?
70%
chance
5 comments
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What percentage of AI computational performance in the US on Jan 1, 2028?
Current estimate
62.8%