Question
How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
Resolved:109Total Forecasters65
Community Prediction
106
(91.1 - 124)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <60 | 3.7% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 91.07 | — |
| median | 105.5 | — |
| upper 75% | 123.7 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >220 | 0.6% | — |
What was the final result?109
Community Peer Score
11.7
Authors:
Opened:Dec 14, 2020
Closes:Feb 13, 2021
Resolves:Jun 15, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 15, 2020
When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?
16 Oct 2025
What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?
91.9
Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?
28%
Authors:
Opened:Dec 14, 2020
Closes:Feb 13, 2021
Resolves:Jun 15, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 15, 2020
When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?
16 Oct 2025
What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?
91.9
Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?
28%