Question

What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters80

Community Prediction6.35

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>15

...

4.324

6.346

8.943

8.7%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Forecasting AI Progress

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

Artificial Intelligence

Software

Gross domestic product

United States

Bureau of Economic Analysis

What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?

5.17

What inflation-adjusted return will the Vanguard Information Technology ETF yield from 2021-2040 if AGI arrives by 2040, in percentage points?

1.69k

Forecasting AI Progress — Discussion

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Forecasting AI Progress

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

Artificial Intelligence

Software

Gross domestic product

United States

Bureau of Economic Analysis

AI Ushers In A New Era For Education & Learning Companies

Forbes•Oct 8, 2024

Americans are using AI at fairly high rates. What does this mean for the economy?

NPR Online News•Oct 8, 2024

The 9 sectors shedding the most jobs — with AI automating over 12,000 in one of them

Business Insider•Oct 10, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?

5.17

What inflation-adjusted return will the Vanguard Information Technology ETF yield from 2021-2040 if AGI arrives by 2040, in percentage points?

1.69k