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84
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84 forecasters
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
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What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?
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Latest estimate
6.13
6.13
(4.4 - 8.48)
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Tech+Com Services SP 500 2027?
Current estimate
0.441%
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What % will consider AI/computers/tech to be most important problem in Jan '28?
Current estimate
10.7 % mentioning
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What will be the Labor Productivity value for the "Information" sector Q4 2028?
Current estimate
186 productivity
1 comment
130 forecasters
What percent of US GDP will come from manufacturing in the first half of 2028?
Current estimate
9.65%
10 comments
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Employment decline in NAICS 52/54 >1% in any month, 2025-2029?
48%
chance
12 comments
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VGT Return On AGI Arrival
Current estimate
1555%
1 comment
36 forecasters
U.S. Employment Below 30% by 2030
1%
chance
5 comments
78 forecasters
What percentage of AI computational performance in the US on Jan 1, 2028?
Current estimate
62.8%