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77 forecasters
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
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How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period?
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>50k
>50k
(38.5k - >50k)
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0 comments
7 forecasters
Scientific Articles Published
0 comments
18 forecasters
When will peak Deep Learning be?
Current estimate
06 Dec 2029
2 comments
118 forecasters
AI-authored paper published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?
63%
chance
6 comments
27 forecasters
EA Survey Responses 2030
Current estimate
6978 people
24 comments
98 forecasters
Greatest Computation Used in AI Training
86 comments
166 forecasters
Total Number of Metaculus Predictions
6 comments
60 forecasters
When will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be publicly available?
Current estimate
26 Dec 2027
0 comments
33 forecasters
CTs Deep Learning Revenue
41%
chance