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11 comments
77 forecasters

How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period?

Latest estimate
>50k
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooks
Opened:Dec 15, 2020
Closed:Feb 13, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 16, 2020
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How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years?

2028
4.43M
2038
7.32M
2048
11.8M
5 forecasters

When will the fraction of English books that mention "Deep Learning" peak, over the 2021 to 2045 period (inclusive)?

26 Mar 2030
(17 May 2026 - Apr 2033)
26 Mar 2030
(17 May 2026 - Apr 2033)
16 forecasters

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

70% chance
134
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