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16 comments
105 forecasters

How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-01-01 to 2027-01-01 period?

Latest estimate
>20k
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooks
Opened:Dec 14, 2020
Closed:Feb 13, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 15, 2020
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How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years?

2028
4.39M
2038
7.32M
2048
11.8M
5 forecasters

When will the fraction of English books that mention "Deep Learning" peak, over the 2021 to 2045 period (inclusive)?

01 Mar 2030
(12 Apr 2026 - Mar 2033)
01 Mar 2030
(12 Apr 2026 - Mar 2033)
16 forecasters

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

2023
5×10²⁵
2025
4.6×10²⁶
2032
3×10²⁹
2 others
91 forecasters
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