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Yang last-round vote share, 2021 NY mayor

Question

Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase.

New York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration.

In 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or "instant runoff" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner.

What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?

This question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%.

Question resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if ballot exhaustion resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46.

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