24 comments
124 forecasters
Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?
99%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 99% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 21, 2020
Closes:Aug 31, 2022
Resolved:Feb 25, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 22, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?
80% chance
24
Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?
29.9% chance
25
How many named variants of SARS-COV-2 in its first 10 years?
18 variants
(15.3 - 23.4)
18 variants
(15.3 - 23.4)
18 forecasters