23 comments
65 forecasters
Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?
17%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 17% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 30, 2020
Closes:Dec 31, 2021
Resolved:Nov 29, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 1, 2021
Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?
32% chance
40
When will Charity Entrepreneurship help create a new GiveWell top charity?
28 Apr 2028
(10 Feb 2025 - >31 Dec 2029)
28 Apr 2028
(10 Feb 2025 - >31 Dec 2029)
15 forecasters
In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?
85% chance
30