Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Manned Mars Landing By 100 Years After Apollo


On July 21, 1969 at 02:56:15 UTC Neil Armstrong stepped onto the surface on the Moon, uttering his famous line, "one small step for [a] man, one giant leap for mankind."

Regrettably, since then progress in space exploration has slowed and as of 2017 humanity has not yet reached the logical next step in the exploration of the final frontier: Mars. Many manned mars missions were planned, the earliest suggested in 1952, with a planned launch year of 1965. Currently, the most interesting planned mission is probably the one from SpaceX (see this question), which has a highly ambitious 2024 launch year. Meanwhile, NASA is planning to reach Mars in 2033.

Will a human land on Mars by July 21, 2069?

This question will resolve positively if a living human sets foot on the surface of Mars prior to July 21, 2069 at 02:56:15 UTC (100 years after the feat was achieved on the moon on Apollo 11). For resolution, credible media reports will suffice. Note that the requirements for a positive resolution are less strict than those laid out by Kennedy for the race to the moon in 1961, as getting humans back to earth alive is not required for this question.

Closing time has been symbolically set to the 50th anniversary of the first Moon landing: July 21, 2019 at 02:56.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.