Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
Log in
Sign Up
53
201
forecasters
34
53 comments
201 forecasters
Health & Pandemics
1 more...
Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?
Follow
share
embed
Resolved
Yes
Timeline
Histogram
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments (53)
Timeline
Key Factors (0)
Question Info
Similar Questions
No key factors yet
Add some that might influence this forecast.
10 comments
57 forecasters
5Y after AGI, engineered pandemic?
5%
chance
9 comments
18 forecasters
COVID named variant count in the 2020s
Current estimate
18.2 variants
2 comments
96 forecasters
Will Bird Flu be declared a PHEIC before 2030?
51%
chance
2 comments
17 forecasters
When 500k H5Nx Influenza Cases?
Current estimate
Jun 2032
12 comments
25 forecasters
Will there be a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?
5.4%
chance
0 comments
26 forecasters
Recurring lockdowns during 2030-2050
30%
chance
2 comments
21 forecasters
WHO announce non-H5N1 Pandemic in 2030
18%
chance
2 comments
166 forecasters
Synth-bio GC to cause (near) extinction?
7%
chance