Question
How many nuclear weapons will exist on January 1, 2075?
Total Forecasters20
Community Prediction
7282 weapons
(1074 weapons - 44.7k weapons)
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CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <50 | 13.5% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 1074 | — |
| median | 7282 | — |
| upper 75% | 44.67k | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >500k | 12.6% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Mar 2, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2075
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2075
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 4, 2021
Authors:
Opened:Mar 2, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2075
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2075
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 4, 2021
