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Will Moore's Law end by 2025?


According to Moore's law, the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years. This is mainly driven by the fact that the half-pitch of transistors halves every four years (reduces by about 30% every two years). The semi-conductor industry has been keeping up with Moore's law for 50 years now, even though the doubling rate got reduced from doubling every year to doubling every two years in 1975 (number of transistors on a chip doubled nearly every year from 1965-1975). Moore's law has driven much of the technological progress of the last half-century, with the most obvious technologies which owe their existence to Moore's law being the personal computer, the smartphone and the internet.

Due to Moore's law's ambitious projections, there have been predictions of its imminent demise for decades. Yet, while an optimist might characterize these concerns as perennial and unfounded, there does seem to be a little more legitimate reason for concern now. Transistors with a half-pitch smaller than 7 nm will experience quantum tunneling and major technological advances might have to be made to create them. Even Intel admits that the doubling tine will increase from two to two and a half years, even though they expect Moore's law to continue indefinitely.

We shall interpret Moore's law to have ended if no progress has been made miniaturizing transistors for 5 years, the end point being the point when the lack of progress started.

Therefore, it is asked: Will the transistors used in the CPU of Apple's most modern available iPhone model on January 1st, 2030 be of the same generation as those used in the CPU of the most modern available iPhone on January 1st, 2025?

We shall define two transistors as same generation if they have a half-pitch within 15% of each other's.

The question shall also resolve positive if Apple has moved on from using transistors to something completely different by 2030, as we are focusing on the 50-year Moore's law, not Ray Kurzweil's 120-year multi-paradigm Moore's law.

Resolution shall be by credible media report.

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