Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

You have been invited to co-author this question draft.

The author will submit it for review by Community Moderators when it's ready. Thanks for helping!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

The Precipice Amazon ratings 1-1-2022

Question

[Inspired by the previous question for 1st Jan 2021]

In March 2020, Oxford philosopher Toby Ord published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include Nate Silver, Max Roser, Tom Chivers, Scott Alexander, and Cate Blanchett. A paperback edition will be published in March 2021 in the US.

As of January 1st 2021 the book has 235 ratings on Amazon. You can view historical data in this spreadsheet.

How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?

Resolves according to ratings on Amazon.com at resolution time.

A previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see the lengthy discussion here

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.