The Precipice Amazon ratings 1-1-2022

Your submission is now in Draft mode. Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!


[Inspired by the previous question for 1st Jan 2021]

In March 2020, Oxford philosopher Toby Ord published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include Nate Silver, Max Roser, Tom Chivers, Scott Alexander, and Cate Blanchett. A paperback edition will be published in March 2021 in the US.

As of January 1st 2021 the book has 235 ratings on Amazon. You can view historical data in this spreadsheet.

How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?

Resolves according to ratings on at resolution time.

A previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see the lengthy discussion here

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site