Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

EA Donations to New Charities in 2025

Question

Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the 2019 survey found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities. The Against Malaria Foundation was the most funded charity, with $1.1 million; followed by GiveWell, with $837,000.

In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?

Donation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.

The set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.

A charity is considered to exist at the date of whichever of the following conditions occurs first:

  1. The charity becomes a legally registered entity in at least one country. For the purposes of this question, a "charity" does not have to be a non-profit. (For example, an LLC that receives donations counts as a "charity".)
  2. The charity can receive public donations. (For example, a few organizations have been able to receive donations through the Centre for Effective Altruism before achieving registered charity status.)

Edge cases:

  • If a charity founded in or before 2020 changes its name in 2021 or later, it is considered to have existed in 2020.
  • If a charity exists as the result of a merger between charities where each original charity existed prior to 2021, then it is considered to have existed in 2020.
  • If a charity exists as the result of a merger between charities, at least one of which was founded after 2020, then it is considered NOT to have existed in 2020.
  • If a charity that was founded in 2020 spins off a separate entity in 2021 or later, then the new entity is considered to have existed in 2020.
Categories:
Effective Altruism

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.