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- November 5, 2017
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Forecaster Stats
Level
3 (Guesstimator)
Predictions
25 predictions on 21 questions (12 resolved)
Comments
60 comments on 32 questions
Rank
2288th
Achievements
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
521 unique forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
- Social issues – Charities (7)
- Effective Altruism (7)
- Series — 2025 EA survey (5)
- Finance – markets (3)
- Economy – Economic Transition (1)
Popular Questions
- What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031? (384 forecasts)
- What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031? (219 forecasts)
- Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031? (108 forecasts)
- If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months? (91 forecasts)
- In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles? (91 forecasts)