314 forecasters

Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?

85%chance

85%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 85% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Dec 29, 2017

Closes:

Jul 21, 2019

Resolved:

Apr 20, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 31, 2017

Economy & Business

🏆 2016-2025 Leaderboard

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Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?

Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?

Will SpaceX successfully land the following on Mars before 2035?

An uncrewed craft

At least one person

At least one person—and return them to Earth