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Total Oil Demand in 2021

Question

Background

In 2019, 3,900 million tonnes of oil was demanded globally, with a net gap between demand and supply at 135 million tonnes. This follows a general upward trend in demand over the last forty years since 1980.

The onset of the pandemic in 2020 greatly affected demand for oil, dropping the price per barrel of US crude oil below $40 dollars in April. As of early February 2021, prices across all producers have risen to the fifties and sixties with OPEC prices at $60.28 and US WTI prices just below that at $58.43.

However, experts from the IEA report that:

“With a Covid-19 vaccine unlikely to ride to the rescue of the global oil market for some time, the combination of weaker demand and rising oil supply provides a difficult backdrop to the meeting of OPEC+ countries due to take place on 1 December. Our current balances, incorporating the quota increase of 2 mb/d included in the OPEC+ supply agreement, imply almost zero stock change in the first quarter of 2021. Unless the fundamentals change, the task of re-balancing the market will make slow progress.”

What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?

Predictions should represent the total oil demand in millions of tonnes.

Resolution Criteria

The resolution will come from the IEA 2021 report which should be released sometime in 2022. An example report from 2020, with data from 2019, can be found here.

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Prediction

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