The price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts report that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels.
With prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil in January 2020, that number dropped to below $10 in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020.
Predictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021.
Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?
Resolution will come from MacroTrends’ 10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices. Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.
This question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.