Question

What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?

Resolved:1.2405

4 comments4

Total Forecasters40

Community Prediction

1.26

(1.14 - 1.38)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>3
community	1.144	1.261	1.379	0.4%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	1.144	—
median	1.261	—
upper 75%	1.379	—
Upper bound
>3	0.4%	—

What was the final result?1.2405

Community Baseline Score

83.2

Community Peer Score

6.9

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Jan 6, 2021

Closes:

Jan 16, 2021

Resolves:

Mar 26, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 8, 2021

2021 Leaderboard

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