Question

Will the Metaculus predictions be within 5% of the community prediction for this question?

Resolved:No

21 comments21

Total Forecasters45

Community Prediction

28%

(16% - 39%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 28%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

46.4

Community Peer Score

0.8

Authors:

alephNot

Opened:

Jan 11, 2018

Closes:

Jan 27, 2018

Resolves:

Jan 31, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 11, 2018

Sports & Entertainment

Computing and Math

2018 Leaderboard

Will Metaculus exist in 2030?

95%

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

85%

Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?

Authors:

alephNot

Opened:

Jan 11, 2018

Closes:

Jan 27, 2018

Resolves:

Jan 31, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 11, 2018

Sports & Entertainment

Computing and Math

2018 Leaderboard

Will Metaculus exist in 2030?

95%

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

85%