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Second US civil war before 2031?



Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this list of civil wars for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current COVID-19 pandemic, social protests, effects of social media platform manipulation, and the presidential election all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?

This question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before 2031?

Resolution Criteria

This resolves positively if and only if all of the following are met before 2031:

  • The Insurrection Act is invoked.
  • While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches.
  • All of these deaths occur in any US state (including DC).

This will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as metaculus admins can determine). Credible sources will be used to determine the total number of deaths and when and where they occurred.

Any conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included.

Conflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support.

Deaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count.

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