234 comments

755 forecasters

Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?

3%chance

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jan 19, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2031

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 19, 2021

Is a new civil war in the U.S. possible?

Strategic Culture•Sep 12, 2025

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