Question

Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?

87

223 comments223

Total Forecasters734

Community Prediction

4%

(1% - 10%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 4%

Authors:

Opened:

Jan 19, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2031

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 19, 2021

Insurrection Act

Plurality of Americans Believe 'Civil War' Likely in Next Decade—Poll

Newsweek•Jun 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?

Will a civil war break out in a country with median age above 30 before 2070?

Will there be a war between two or more democratic countries before 2072?

Authors:

Opened:

Jan 19, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2031

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 19, 2021

Insurrection Act

Plurality of Americans Believe 'Civil War' Likely in Next Decade—Poll

Newsweek•Jun 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?

Will a civil war break out in a country with median age above 30 before 2070?

Will there be a war between two or more democratic countries before 2072?