13 comments
48 forecasters
What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?
Authors:
Opened:Jan 14, 2021
Closes:Mar 13, 2021
Resolved:Mar 22, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 15, 2021
What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?
78 forecasters
What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?
51.9%
(40.5 - 62.6)
51.9%
(40.5 - 62.6)
22 forecasters
When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?
11 Apr 2026
(02 Dec 2025 - 03 Jun 2027)
11 Apr 2026
(02 Dec 2025 - 03 Jun 2027)
18 forecasters