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35 forecasters
Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round
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How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?
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18 forecasters
When will peak Deep Learning be?
Current estimate
06 Dec 2029
0 comments
7 forecasters
Scientific Articles Published
2 comments
118 forecasters
AI-authored paper published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?
63%
chance
1 comment
11 forecasters
Share of AI Publications from China
Current estimate
48.2%
9 comments
78 forecasters
SOTA on ImageNet Top-1 Accuracy
6 comments
60 forecasters
When will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be publicly available?
Current estimate
26 Dec 2027
1 comment
8 forecasters
What will be the total AI compute capacity on January 1, 2028?
Current estimate
105M H100 Equivalents
1 comment
1 forecaster
Ex vivo human brain tissue used in 10+ studies in one year for 1st time when?
Current estimate
2030 Year