Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Will Amazon choose either Austin or Boston for its HQ2?
Amazon recently announced plans to build "HQ2", a second headquarters in North America. As detailed in a number of news articles, cities across the continent scrambled to promote themselves as the ideal location; the selected region will absorb a $5 billion investment and see the creation of up to 50,000 new jobs over the next two decades. It is widely expected that the winning locale will offer significant tax incentives, but a range of tangible and intangible factors will likely play into the final selection.
Amazon recently announced a list of twenty finalist cities and metro areas chosen from a list of 238 submitted bids. The selections lean heavily on the Midwest and Eastern Seaboard, and with the exception of Toronto, are all in the United States.
The downselect has naturally led to considerable speculation regarding Amazon's final choice. At the time of this question's creation, the Irish betting website PaddyPower has Boston, Atlanta and Austin in the lead, with 2/1, 5/1, and 11/2 payoffs respectively, and with other finalists having odds ranging from 8/1 to 20/1. Given the desirable simplicity of a binary resolution, and given the nice ring of "Austin or Boston?", we ask:
Will Austin TX or Boston MA be chosen as the site for Amazon's HQ2?
Resolution is by official Amazon announcement, and resolves as positive if the HQ is located in the Austin TX, or Boston MA Metropolitan Statistical Area
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.